The Hindenburg Cluster: 2nd Omen In 3 Days

by Joe Oliver, Forex Trading-Pips

 

The Hindenburg Cluster: 2nd Omen In 3 Days ZeroHedge: 

Despite the mainstream media‘s desperate need to play down any and every potential indication that all is not well with the “buy the dip” mentality, there is no hiding the fact that volatility is back and nowhere is that more evident in the guts of the Hindenburg Omen calculation. Just as we saw in October 2007, when NYSE margin was just as extended, credit spreads were just as compressed (and today’s extreme range), and valuations were just as high, the Hindenburg Omen signals are starting to cluster (in a confirming manner). First on April 15th, second on Friday, and now third today marks the first such cluster since Bernanke saved the day in August 2010. Perhaps for those not running for the hills, UBS’ Art Cashin’s views are noteworthy, “proponents of the Omen will tell you there has never been a crash without the presence of the Hindenburg Omen. Sounds pretty compelling, indeed. Skeptics, however, note that every occurrence of the Hindenburg Omen has not been accompanied by a crash. In fact, three out of four times, there is no crash. Sounds a lot less compelling now. So, an omen is a caution – not a cause.”

 

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Via Wikipedia:

 
 

From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% [The Wall Street Journal 8/23/2010 article states that accuracy is 25%, looking at period from 1985], and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.

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