Forex Trading Morning Forex Technical Update 06/19/13

by Joe Oliver, Forex Trading-Pips


Forex Trading Morning Technical Update Action Forex: 

EUR/USD hovering below 1.34

‘Markets will likely continue to view any move to withdraw policy as the first step of many and, as a result, volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market balances incoming data with Fed communications about its policy stance.’ – Barclays (based on Reuters)

Pair’s Outlook

After being supported by the weekly PP for some time pair is currently hovering slightly below 1.34 and seems to be aiming at 1.345 area. Such scenario is also indicated by the short term technicals. However, it seems more than likely that 1.345 are should hold up and fail the pair. After that it should stop at 1.330 area.

Traders’ Sentiment

Bulls strengthened their presence in the market by additional 1%. At the moment they account for 64% of market participants. Pending orders, however, are once again perfectly distributed between the long and short traders.

GBP/USD supported by the 200-day SMA

‘We wouldn’t be surprised if he has a few choice words to say about the City, remuneration and risk taking. Carney has been a banker at Goldman so he’ll probably be different. He’ll probably be more sympathetic to the banking system and recognize the pressures that exist there.’ – Schroders Plc. (based on Bloomberg)

Pair’s Outlook

As anticipated pair has reached new marginal high and failed. It dipped to 1.556 and after recovering some of its losses at the moment is hovering above the 200-day SMA. At the same time it seems that some pressure is coming form the weekly PP at 1.565. Pair might recover all of the yesterdays losses, but it does not seem it could do anything more and medium term move to the 1.5528 seems rather plausible.

Traders’ Sentiment

Situation regarding market sentiment has not changed a bit since yesterday. Bulls continue to hold 74% of all open positions and 53% of all pending orders were posted by the bears.

USD/JPY stooped by the weekly PP

‘Speculations about the Fed’s decision are still keeping investors on the sidelines, so volume may be low. But Wall Street’s optimistic stance on the Fed outcome is serving as a tailwind to Japanese stocks.’ – Mizuho Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair’s Outlook

After a slow but confident appreciation initiated by the monthly S2/Fibo 38.2% (November, 2012, to May, 2013, move) pair has met some resistance provided by the weekly PP at 95.8. it indicates that pair is still facing significant pressure. Only an unexpected rise above the 97.05 would give stronger indications about a possible recovery of the pair. For the time being the mentioned Fibo 38.2% with monthly S2 and 200-day SMA should be followed closely.

Traders’ Sentiment

At the moment bulls hold 75% of all open positions in the market. It is second consecutive daily 2% increase. It is highly likely that such situation will persist as share of pending orders posted by the bulls increased as well (55% in total, +1% since yesterday).

USD/CHF at 0.92

‘The Swiss franc has strengthened as risk aversion has flared up. While we remain bearish for the franc over the medium term, the near term outlook will be driven by risk gyrations. We don’t expect any shift in policy on Thursday, however, leaving USD/CHF firmly supported around 0.9130.’ – Credit Agricole (based on The Economic Times)

Pair’s Outlook

Pair failed at the 0.925 and at the moment is being supported by the 0.92. Rather unexpectedly, pairs outlook, as indicated by technicals, became much more negative. At the moment the main question is if 0.92 will hold once more or it might have lost some of the strength in the last 5 or so days. Technical indicators, however, suggest that we should await at least a dip and most likely till the 0.91 cent area.

Traders’ Sentiment

Although number of bulls in the market decreased by 3% the fact that that the greenback remains the second most bought major currency across the board weighs on the pair making 62% of all positions long. Such situation is very likely to persist as 55% of pending orders are set to go long on the pair as well

…More at Morning Forex Technical

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