EUR/USD Holding Below 1.29 after an ABC Correction

by Admin

Awards 2013

EUR/USD 1H chart 7:40AM EDT 4/2/2013


ABC: The EUR/USD started the week falling below 1.28, but climbed back up o about 1.2875 before completing an ABC correction that began from 1.2750. Besides 50% retracement of the latest swing, the market was also near resistance from a near-term consolidation area. Failure to push above 1.29 keeps the rally categorized as a minor correction just against the latest downswing from 1.3072, and not a significant retracement against the higher degree downtrend from the 1.3710, 2013-high.

The market could have completed a correction in ABC structure with A = C (or very close).

If the 1H RSI falls back below 30, it would reflect a failure to further develop bullish momentum. Following the downtrend since February, the EUR/USD still has room to fall until being challenged by the 1.2660-1.2680 area, which contains the Nov. support pivot and 61.8% retracement of the 1.2041-1.3710 uptrend. At this point, falling below 1.28 might also suggest bearish continuation, but first with focus on breaking the 1.2750 low.