EUR/USD Bounces off 1.30 to Test the 200-hour SMA

by Admin

Awards 2013

EUR/USD 1H chart 9:00AM EDT 4/18/2013


1.30 Support: The 4/17 session brought EUR/USD from 1.32 to 1.30 before finding some support. From 1.30, EUR/USD clawed back some losses over the 4/18 Asian European session and is now testing the 200-hour SMA during the US session.

The 200-pip decline could be a sign that EUR/USD bears are taking charge. Given some elbow space, if EUR/USD holds under 1.31, and the 1H RSI holds under 60, then the bearish outlook/momentum remains in tact in the 1H time-frame. A push above 1.3145 however should reflect a sideways to bullish market with at least the 1.32 high back in sight.

When looking at the 4H chart, we see that the RSI is still above 40, showing maintenance of the bullish momentum established in April. Therefore, a break above 1.31 would be an early sign of bullish revival, while a break above the a 1.3145 pivot would add weight to that scenario. However, holding below 1.31, we have downside risk towards 50% retracement at 1.2973 and 61.8% retracement at 1.2919.

EUR/USD 4H chart 9:02AM EDT 4/18/2013