From ZeroHedge:
The week ahead will be driven by the heavy end-of-month data schedule. In addition to the usual key releases like ISM and payrolls and ECB meeting, this week we also get an FOMC meeting – though it will hardly see much more than a nod to the weaker activity data of late. For the ECB meeting a full refi but not a deposit rate cut are priced now. Outside the FOMC and the ECB meeting there will be focus on the RBI meeting in India, with a 25bp cut priced in response to lower inflation numbers recently.
Monday 29th April
- Japan Holiday
- Sweden Minutes of MPC Meeting
- Italy Business Confidence (Apr): Probably too early to reflect the end of government uncertainty. Last reading was 88.9.
- Germany Harmonised CPI Apr (Flash): Consensus expects -0.1% mom versus +0.4% last.
- US PCE Core Price Index (Mar): GS +0.03%. Consensus expects -0.1% versus +0.1% last.
- US Personal Consumption (Mar): GS 0.2%. Consensus expects 0.0% versus 0.7% mom last.
- US Personal Income (Mar): GS 0.3%. Consensus expects 0.4% mom versus 1.1% last.
- US GS Analyst Index (April)
- Also interesting: US Pending Homesales.
Tuesday 30th
- Korea Industrial Production (Mar): GS +1.0% yoy, versus -9.3% yoy last.
- United Kingdom GFK Consumer Confidence (Apr): Consensus expects -26 versus -26 last.
- Japan Labour Market Data (Mar): Focus will be on any evidence of rising wages in response to BoJ easing. For the unemployment rate, consensus expects 4.2% versus 4.3% last.
- Japan Industrial Production (Mar): Consensus expects 0.4% mom versus 0.6% last.
- Spain GDP (Q1): Consensus expects -0.5% qoq versus -0.8% last.
- Turkey CBRT Inflation Report
- Germany Unemployment Change (Apr): Consensus expects +2k versus +13k last.
- Germany Retail Sales (Mar): Consensus expects -0.3% mom versus 0.4% last.
- Italy Unemployment Rate (Mar): Consensus expects 11.7% versus 11.6% last.
- Euro area Harmonised CPI (Apr): Consensus expects 1.6% yoy versus 1.7% last.
- United States Chicago PMI (Apr): GS 52.0. Consensus expects 52.6 versus 52.4 last.
- United States Consumer Confidence (Apr): GS 61.0. Consensus expects 61.0 versus 59.7 last.
- Also Interesting: Japan Retail Sales, South Africa Trade Balance, Chile Manfacturing Index and Retail Sales, Turkey Trade Balance, Taiwan GDP.
Wednesday 1st May
- Korea Trade Balance (Apr): Consensus expects exports to rise by 2.0% yoy versus 0.4% last.
- United Kingdom PMI – Manufacturing (Apr): Consensus expects 48.5 versus 48.3 last.
- United States ADP Employment Change (Apr): Consensus expects 155k versus 158k last.
- United States ISM Survey (Apr): GS 50.0. Consensus expects 51.0 versus 51.3 last.
- United States FOMC Meeting Results: Our baseline expectation is that the FOMC statement will show only modest changes, mostly or entirely in the first paragraph discussing the weaker economy. A potential surprise would be greater emphasis on downside inflation risks.
Thursday 2nd
- Global PMIs (April): On average, consensus expects only moderate change in the global PMI reading from last month’s releases.
- United Kingdom Construction PMI (Apr): Consensus expects 48.0 versus 47.2 last.
- Czech Republic Monetary Policy Meeting
- ECB Meeting: GS and consensus expect a refi rate cut to 0.50% but not a change in the deposit rate. The press conference will be key to gauge if more easing is in the pipeline and with regards to credit policies for the periphery.
- United States Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus expects 346k versus 339k last.
- United States Trade Balance (Mar): GS $-40.0bn. Consensus expects $-42.2bn versus $-43.0bn last.
- Also Interesting: Brazil Trade Balance.
Friday 3rd
- Japan Holiday
- India Central Bank Meeting: Following lower WPI prices and weak activity, consensus expects a cut in the repo and reverse repo rates by 25bp each to 7.25% and 6.25%.
- Services (Apr): Consensus expects 52.4 unchanged.
- Brazil Ind. Production (Mar): GS +1.5% mom. Consensus expects +1.2% mom versus -2.5% last.
- US Labour Market Data (Apr): GS and consensus expect the unemployment rate at 7.6% stable. On payrolls, GS is slightly above consensus at 150k, compared to 143k and 88k in the last release.
- United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Apr): GS 53.0. Consensus expects 54.0 versus 54.4 last.
- Also Interesting: Norway PMI, Brazil IP, US Factory Orders.
…more at Busy Week Head – Key Events, Issues And Market Impact In The Next Five Days
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